Current Analysis Converging Upon War “WAR,” proclaimed the three-inch headline in Ma‘ariv, Israel’s leading daily, the day after Hizballah launched its cross-border attack on an Israeli army convoy on July 12. With the onset of Israel’s massive bombing campaign in Lebanon that evening, its aerial and ground incursions into Gaza were tr Robert Blecher • 13 min read
Current Analysis How UN Pressure on Hizballah Impedes Lebanese Reform When the last Syrian soldier left Lebanese territory in April 2005, jubilant crowds gathered in Beirut’s Martyrs’ Square to celebrate the coming of a new era. In Washington and Paris, the mood was also festive, as officials praised what they called Lebanon’s “Cedar Revolution” as the first in Reinoud Leenders • 17 min read
MER Article Hizballah After the Syrian Withdrawal Since the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 in September 2004, Hizballah has been in the international spotlight. In addition to demanding the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, the resolution calls for the “disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias,” p Joseph Alagha • 15 min read
Current Analysis Lebanon Catches Its Breath The February 14 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri has precipitated a rapid and dramatic transformation of Lebanon’s political landscape. In the six weeks following the assassination, the Lebanese government collapsed and Syria began the process of withdrawing its soldiers and intelligence officers from Lebanon, almost 30 Nicholas Blanford • 12 min read
MER Article Iran, the Vatican of Shi'ism? The Iranian state, controlled de facto by the conservatives in the government, promotes the idea that Iran is the center of Shi‘ism. It bases its argument on the fact that Iran is a Shi‘i-run state, whereas Shi‘i Muslims in other parts of the world live in states that are dominated by Sunnis, and so Roschanack Shaery • 11 min read
Current Analysis Hizballah and Syria's "Lebanese Card" The clock is ticking on a surprising UN Security Council resolution, passed on September 2, calling on Syria to cease its various forms of interference in Lebanon. France and the United States co-sponsored the call on "all remaining foreign forces to withdraw from Lebanon," which charged the UN Nicholas Blanford • 11 min read
Current Analysis Holding Syria Accountable, Though Selectively With George W. Bush stubbornly insisting that the US is making “progress” in the “central phase of the war on terror” in Iraq, pro-Israel Democrats and Republicans in Congress figure it is time for phase three. Some think tankers want to train Washington’s gunsights on Iran, but next week Congress w Chris Toensing • 3 min read
Current Analysis Hizballah in the Firing Line The overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq and Washington's recent pressure on Syria have placed Lebanon's Hizballah organization firmly in the firing line in the next phase of George W. Bush's war on terrorism. But Hizballah is confident that its strategic Nicholas Blanford • 10 min read
Current Analysis Fears of a Second Front On March 30, Hizballah attacked several Israeli army outposts in the Shebaa Farms, a disputed strip of mountainous territory running along Lebanon's southeast border with the Golan Heights, in the first such attack since mid-January. Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah, Hizballah's secretary-general, reportedly authorized preparations for stepped-up operations Nicholas Blanford • 10 min read
Current Analysis Walking into Israel's Trap? The most recent Hizballah cross-border attack in the Shebaa Farms area on April 14, and the subsequent Israeli air raid against a Syrian radar station on the Dahr al-Baidar ridge, have heightened fears of a regional conflict between Syria and Israel. These fears are probably unfounded, given the reluctance of Michael Young • 6 min read
Current Analysis Hizballah Outside and In Five months after the withdrawal of Israeli forces from south Lebanon, Hizballah refuses to go away. In early October, Hizballah made headlines in its struggle against Israel by kidnapping three Israeli soldiers, and a fourth man, Elhanan Tannenbaum, accused of spying on Israel's behalf. The high-profile abductions were Michael Young • 4 min read
Current Analysis Lebanon: An Occupation Ends Just about everything about last week's Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon was surprising to most observers. When, in the early hours of May 24, the last Israeli soldier stepped off Lebanese soil and locked the border gate behind him, he ended a 22-year occupation several weeks ahead of Lara Deeb • 6 min read
