MERIP
Media Resource List, October 29, 2004
AVAILABLE FOR INTERVIEWS on the following topics:
- Prospects for the future without Arafat
MOUIN RABBANI
Mouin Rabbani is senior Middle East analyst with the International
Crisis Group, specializing on Palestine and the Arab-Israeli
conflict, and a contributing editor of Middle East Report
. He has published widely on Palestinian issues and travels
to Palestine frequently. Commenting on possible scenarios
in the event that Arafat is incapacitated, Rabbani said today:
"The Palestinians' pre-eminent challenge will be to prevent
the national movement's geographic and organizational fragmentation,
reconstruct it as a popular and inclusive institution with
a clear strategy and political program that enjoys the allegiance
of the main political forces and the majority of Palestinians,
and be able to implement it on the ground -- no small task.
The idea that Arafat is going to be replaced by a leader willing
and able to accept what Arafat rejected is a pipe dream. To
the contrary, it may well be the case that Arafat takes the
two-state settlement -- what is left of it -- with him to
the grave."
GLENN ROBINSON
Robinson is associate professor in the Department of Defense
Analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA.
Robinson is the author of Building a Palestinian State:
The Incomplete Revolution (Indiana University Press,
1997) and various articles on Arafat. Commenting on possible
scenarios after Arafat, Robinson said today: "In the short
run, the only thing that is certain is uncertainty, as much
depends on how various actors, including Israel, respond to
Arafat's death. The transition could be bloody or it could
be entirely peaceful. In the longer run, the basics of Palestinian
politics are not likely to change much since the structures
for 'soft authoritarian' rule in Palestine are well entrenched.
However, Arafat's death would call the bluff of Israel and
the US -- they will have lost the ostensible justification
for not enforcing the 'road map.' Since Sharon has indicated
that he does not want to follow the 'road map' in any case,
some light might emerge between Washington and Tel Aviv's
positions following Arafat's departure."
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