MERIP Media Resource List, January 25, 2005

AVAILABLE FOR INTERVIEWS on the following topic:
- Iraq's election January 30

SAMI ZUBAIDA
Sami Zubaida is professor emeritus of politics and sociology, Birkbeck College, University of London. His research and writing focus on religion, law and nationalism in the culture and politics of the Middle East, including politics and society in Iraq in the twentieth century. Zubaida said today: “The Americans could not afford to postpone the elections against the wishes of Sistani and the major Shi'ite groups, who are very keen to proceed with them. In any case, there is no likelihood that postponement would lead to improved security, in fact quite the contrary. The major winners in the elections will certainly be the Shi'ite groups. Within these, the religious leaders will be most favored because they have well-developed institutions and organizations. In contrast, the secular Shi'ites, as well as other secularists, while likely to have a considerable constituency, lack organization and funding. The Kurds are already in a favorable situation but would like their de facto autonomy to be constitutionally ratified, which will become a big problem, as will the status of Kirkuk, in the contests over the writing of the constitution after the election. The biggest losers overall will be the constituency of the former Saddam regime, primarily Sunni Arabs, but by no means all the Sunni Arabs. It is they, now converging with the Salafi Islamists, who are determined to stop the political process that will further demolish their previous dominance.”
 

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