MERIP Primer on the Uprising in Palestine

Is Arafat in Charge?

From the beginning, the Palestinian uprising expressed cumulative popular anger at both the violence of the Israeli occupation and the compromises Yasser Arafat seemed willing to make on basic Palestinian national rights -- such as the establishment of a viable sovereign state, the right of return for Palestinian refugees displaced in 1948 and 1967 and Palestinian sovereignty in East Jerusalem. The Palestinian protests following Sharon's visit to al-Haram al-Sharif were spearheaded by Islamists and students -- the sectors of the population among whom Arafat enjoys the least influence. Since September 2000, Arafat has followed the uprising and guerrilla war, not led it.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) is not a fully sovereign government like Israel or the United States, but it does provide municipal services and attempts to maintain order in the areas under its control. Before and during the intifada, Palestinians have repeatedly complained of the PA's inadequate services and uncertain leadership. The PA's top ranks, including Arafat, mostly belong to Fatah, the largest faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Many junior officers of the PA security services are also Fatah members. But Fatah is independent of the PA, and Arafat does not control the entire faction through a single chain of command. The uprising has pushed militant local leaders of Fatah to the forefront. The Fatah militants' demands -- full Israeli withdrawal, removal of settlements, a sovereign state with its capital in Jerusalem and the right of return for refugees -- are the demands of the intifada.

As the uprising slowly deteriorated into a war of attrition, some members of the PA security services joined in armed attacks on Israeli soldiers and settlers, like their fellow Fatah militants outside the PA. But the organization of these attacks appeared to be local, rather than central, and a common refrain among Palestinians was that "there is no leadership."

When the war of attrition began to be punctuated by Israeli incursions into and reoccupations of Palestinian-controlled areas, even Palestinians critical of PA rule rallied behind Arafat. Palestinians feared that Israel sought to replace Arafat -- still their elected leader despite his shortcomings -- or to destroy the PA entirely. Apart from Palestinians' resistance to the idea that their leader should be chosen by outside forces, no other figure has emerged as a potential replacement. Arafat's ever-tightening "isolation" in his Ramallah headquarters since December 2001 further enhanced his popularity, in contrast to Israel's apparent intentions.

Israel and the US continue to demand that Arafat crack down on the uprising and publicly forbid all forms of "violence," not just suicide bombings. But Israeli assaults have destroyed many PA security installations and pushed many security personnel in the direction of the militants. Even if the PA retains the physical ability to maintain "absolute calm," to do so would strengthen the voices that describe the PA as a proxy police force for the Israeli occupation, and once again endanger Arafat's status as leader of the Palestinian cause.

Click to go to page 5 of the Primer, Who Orders Suicide Bombings?

Or click here to view all sections of the Primer on a single page