Ariel
Sharon�s push for unilateral Israeli withdrawal from
the Gaza Strip and four forlorn West Bank settlements
in the spring of 2004 came after a year of mounting
criticism inside and outside Israel that he had no long-term
�solution� for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As
the prime minister conceded, his scheme was designed
to forestall solutions brokered by international actors,
as well as locally engineered initiatives, like the
Geneva Accord of November 2003, that would implement
a two-state solution based upon the last formulas discussed
by Israeli and Palestinian negotiators at Taba in January
2001. With disengagement, Sharon seeks to exploit the
perception that there is no Palestinian partner for
negotiations, and to impose Israel�s power on the weaker
party. The Sharon plan was rejected in a poorly attended
Likud Party referendum on May 2, 2004, but outside the
settler right wing, unilateral withdrawal enjoys wide
support among the Israeli Jewish public. This support
is drawn from deeper springs than the traditional split
between the Likud right and the Labor Party center over
the concept of trading land for peace.
Talk
of disengagement obscured the growingdebate,
during 2003 and 2004, over alternatives to the two-state
model�a discourse that increasingly has tested the long-standing
conventional wisdom that the two-state solution is �the
only game in town.�[1] Purveyors of conventional wisdom took note. In October 2003,
the editors of the New York Times described arguments
against the two-state solution as �insidious,� but acknowledged
that they were gaining ground. In the same month, the
state-controlled Israel Broadcast Authority�s prestigious
�Popolitika� program hosted a debate on the continuing
viability of the two-state solution. Research published
by the liberal Israeli daily Haaretz suggests
that 67 percent of the Israeli public �strongly or moderately
fear� a scenario in which Israel finds itself in a one-state
reality.[2]
Two
alternatives to the two-state endgame are discussed.
One is a binational state, offering power-sharing to
two separate peoples with distinct collective identities
within one polity. The binational model encompasses
federal, confederal and consociational variants. The
second alternative proposes a single democratic polity,
where there is no ethnic or national distinction between
citizens. Whereas the former alternative is premised
on collective entitlements, as developed in the Good
Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, the latter is
premised on individual rights, as in post-apartheid
South Africa. The two concepts are often used interchangeably,
and the word �binational� is understood by most Israelis
to denote the South African endgame. Some, like Meron
Benvenisti, suggest that the conflation of terminology
is designed to �prevent any debate about�attractive
alternatives� to the two-state solution.[3]
There
are, of course, other alternatives to a two-state outcome.
These include an entity in which Jews rule over a Palestinian
majority, through various schemes of coercion. The Israeli
right has variously proposed canton schemes which will
allow a Jewish minority to rule over a Palestinian majority
through gerrymandering or a model in which Palestinians
exercise their political rights in Jordan and Egypt.
Others fear that Sharon and the Israeli right wish to
create a set of disconnected cantons that would bear
the name of �Palestinian state.� Such a �bantustan�
model would maximize Israeli control of territory, while
minimizing the number of Palestinians living in the
Israeli state. In this climate, how did the first two
alternatives to the two-state solution come to return
from their banishment to the margins?
International
Doubters
In
the international community, by far the most forthright
opposition to the two-state solution comes from the
intellectual left, with its antipathy for nationalism
and ethnic states. It is held that Zionism is a discriminatory
ideology and that Israel is an inherently inequitable
state.[4] Many Israelis view these arguments
as fundamentally anti-Semitic, because Israel is singled
out for condemnation as a nation-state, or because Israel
is singled out for condemnation as an occupying power,
while China�s occupation of Tibet and Russia�s anti-separatist
war in Chechnya attract less attention. The Oslo �peace
process� of the 1990s dramatically weakened the impact
of anti-Zionist leftists on public discourse, and some
abandoned their opposition to Zionism in the hope that
the Oslo process�which tacitly envisioned two states�would
work, and on the assumption that both peoples desired
such a deal. The collapse of Oslo has encouraged the
intellectual left to argue anew that a binational state
is not only likely, but desirable. Tony Judt stirred
a major uproar when he recently noted that, �The very
idea of a �Jewish state��a state in which Jews and the
Jewish religion have exclusive privileges from which
non-Jewish citizens are forever excluded�is rooted in
another time and place. Israel, in short, is an anachronism.�[5]
Judt�s submission elicited thousands of letters to the
editor, confirming Daniel Lazare�s assessment that a
�long-standing taboo has finally begun to fall.�[6] That taboo inhibits debate in the US over the
legitimacy of a Jewish state.
Over
the ensuing months, writers who believe that a two-state
solution is simply impracticable have joined the band
of two-state doubters. Veteran journalist Helena Cobban,
who reversed her earlier opposition to a one-state outcome,
provides one example.[7] Even before the spate of articles in highbrow publications, diplomats
engaged in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict also raised
doubts over the viability of a two-state solution, despite
the fact that the international community invested vast
resources in the Oslo process and, now, the �road map.�
For instance, in 2002 the UN secretary-general�s special
envoy to the Middle East, Terje Roed-Larsen, asked whether
the UN was �nearing the death of the two-state solution,
the bedrock for all our peacemaking efforts?�[8] These misgivings stem from the political impasse,
not an ideological preference.
Intellectually,
the renewed opposition to the notion of ethnically exclusive
states must be seen against the backdrop of the bloody
conflicts of post-Communist Eastern Europe, especially
the Balkans, deepening and widening European integration
and opposition to �clash of civilizations� theory. Israel�s
violations of human rights in the Occupied Territories
have also eroded support for Israel and its legitimacy,
particularly in Europe. In a Europe-wide survey conducted
in November 2003, a whopping 59 percent of respondents
ranked Israel ahead of the US, Iraq, North Korea and
Iran as the greatest perceived threat to world stability.
Though many Israelis quickly dismissed these results
as evidence of anti-Semitism, Eliahu Salpeter notes
that it was Israel and the Jews who �determined that
Israel should be a light unto the nations�[9]�hence they are judged by the moral standards
they claim. If Israel has so far won the war of images
in the US, one Jewish American leader, Brian Lurie,
cautions that if the intifada does not end soon,
�Israel is liable to end its preferential standing in
American public opinion.�[10]
Israeli
Doubts
Wall
art in Israel. (Eddie Gerald)
Doubts
over a two-state outcome are also, increasingly, being
articulated in Israeli discourse. One prominent supporter
of the two-state outcome who has raised his concerns
is Yossi Alpher. Alpher warns that the two-state solution
should not �be taken for granted.�[11] Daniel Gavron has gone one step further, advocating
that Israeli Jews embrace a binational state while they
still enjoy demographic ascendancy. Gavron, a Zionist,
notes that having concluded that partition is no longer
possible, �we are left with only one alternative: Israeli-Palestinian
coexistence in one nation.�[12]
Gavron�s idea enjoys scant support among Jewish Israelis;
78 percent of them oppose such an entity,[13] which they view as a recipe
for a �Greater Palestine.� But the binational idea is
rooted in Zionist discourse. In mandatory Palestine
the likes of Henrietta Szold, Martin Buber, Judah Magnes
and the Hashomer Hatzair movement propagated it. Though
vilified in Zionist historiography for their views,
they were not alone. Prominent Zionist leaders like
Chaim Weizmann and Chaim Arlozoroff supported the idea.
David Ben Gurion, the first prime minister of Israel,
toyed with binational ideas between 1924 and 1939, probably
for tactical purposes. At a time when Jews were a minority
(less than 20 percent) in the territory of mandatory
Palestine, he surmised that the Zionists were too weak
to take on both the British and the Arabs. Moreover,
the demand for parity in political representation, implicit
in the rally for binationalism, clearly served the Zionist
movement. On the one hand, it would have ensured over-representation
for Jews in the mandate�s political institutions. On
the other hand, it allowed the Zionist leadership to
maintain ambiguity about its real intention to create
a Jewish state. But the Peel Commission rejected the
cantonization proposed by the Zionist movement, and
this development, coupled with the plight of the Jews
in Europe and Ben Gurion�s pessimism that an accommodation
with Arab leaders was possible, led him to abandon the
binational idea.[14]After independence, Israeli support for binationalism
declined.
On
the other end of the Israeli political spectrum, elements
in the ideological right and the settler movement actively
pursue a single state. In opposition to �disengagement,�
some of Sharon�s right-wing detractors have openly called
for annexation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, while
maintaining the Jewish nature of the state. The implication
is that the Jewish state would need to construct institutions
that formally discriminate in favor of Jews, or engage
in ethnic cleansing. As the Hebron settler leader Noam
Arnon has argued, �if there is a contradiction between
this [Jewish] essence and the character of the government
[democracy], it is clear that the essence takes precedence.�[15]
In
revealing newspaper interviews, Effi Eitam, leader of
the National Religious Party and a minister in the Sharon
government, laid out his vision for a Greater Israel.
Eitam noted that the �only Jewish state in the world
requires a minimum of territory.� Regarding those Palestinians
who wish to remain in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip,
Eitam suggested that Israel offer them �enlightened
residency,� as opposed to citizenship. Those unwilling
to accept this status would have to relocate.[16] Some on the right propose leaving Palestinian areas under Israeli
security control, yet allowing Palestinians municipal
autonomy. Another version of the Greater Israel concept
proposes that the entire geographical area west of the
Jordan be divided into ten cantons, eight Israeli and
two Palestinian, with each canton given the same representation
in the Knesset, thereby guaranteeing a Jewish majority.
Many Israeli commentators hold that the settler movement
and its supporters are endangering Israel by rendering
a binational state more likely.[17]
The
Palestinians
Until
1988, advocacy for a �secular Palestine� was the traditional
position of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO),
though Israelis viewed support for this idea as tactical,
rather than ideological. After the Oslo accord of 1993,
diaspora intellectuals, most notably the late Edward
W. Said,carried the banner of opposition to separation.
Many of these standpatters feel vindicated by the current
state of affairs. More importantly, leaders inside the
Palestinian territories have come to propose alternatives
to the two-state solution. The most important of these
voices has been Birzeit University�s Ali Jarbawi, who
has long argued that the Palestinians should serve Israel
an ultimatum demanding that it agree to a Palestinian
state within six months, after which the Palestinians
would demand annexation.[18]
The idea has gradually gained currency as the stalemate
continues. The first prominent Fatah leader to sound
a warning that time is running out for this accommodation
was Marwan Barghouti, general secretary of Fatah in
the West Bank. Speaking at the close of his trial on
charges including murder and conspiracy, he cautioned:
�I hope the Israelis have learned that the Palestinian
people cannot be brought to yield with force. If an
occupation does not end unilaterally or through negotiations
then there is only one solution�one state for two peoples.�[19]
Thus far, the Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership
has largely refrained from dabbling in this debate,
underscoring the growing gap between the street and
the political elite. One poll suggests that almost a
third of ordinary Palestinians support a binational
outcome.[20] A notable voice for alternatives to the two-state solution has
been the Negotiations Support Unit (NSU), a team of
lawyers drafting position papers and making maps for
the PLO in preparation for eventual final status talks.
NSU staffers, many of whom are diaspora Palestinians,
have submitted that the Palestinian cause would be better
served by a struggle for civil rights. The first prominent
PA official to warn that time for a two-state accommodation
is running out was the PA Minister of Finance, Salam
Fayyad. In a memorandum submitted to the Bush administration
in October 2002, he warned that Israeli settlement expansion
was undermining a future two-state deal.[21]
In December 2003, Prime Minister Ahmad Qurei also sounded
the warning after Sharon announced that he was going
to move ahead with his unilateral disengagement plan
at the annual Herzliya conference. Qurei noted, �This
is an apartheid solution to put the Palestinians in
cantons. Who can accept this? We will go for a one-state
solution.� There�s no other solution. We will not hesitate
to defend the right of our people when we feel the very
serious intention [of Israel] to destroy these rights.�[22] Yasser Arafat soon followed
suit in an interview he granted to the Guardian.[23]
These warnings were, however, largely dismissed as tactical
by Israelis. The PA can ill afford to abandon the two-state
outcome, and thereby forego the vast amounts of international
aid that sustain its large civil service.[24]
Facts
on the Ground
But
the most important reasons for the challenge to the
two-state solution relate to developments on the ground,
especially continued settlement expansion and the construction
of the �separation fence.� According to Amira Hass,
the pace of settlement expansion in the Occupied Territories
since 1993 has created the �geography of a single state.�[25] Peace Now says that in 2003 the Israeli government
published an additional 1,627 tenders for new housing
in the West Bank, a fact that speaks volumes for Israel�s
commitment to a sustainable two-state outcome. The land
grab, argues Meron Benvenisti, nurtures a sense that
the �connection between territory and ethnic identity�which
was applicable up to about 20 years ago�cannot be implemented
and any attempt to implement it will only complicate
the problem instead of solving it.�[26]
Others simply doubt whether Israel is willing or able
to extricate itself from the territories. Such doubts
are not ungrounded. Eitam confidently dismisses settlement
removal: �Do you really think that anyone is capable
of dismantling Ariel, Kiryat Arba or Karnei Shomron?�[27]
The former head of the army�s central command, Yitzhak
Eitan, fears that dismantling settlements will trigger
a civil war, making the evacuation near impossible.[28] The assassination of former Prime Minister
Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995 serves as a striking
reminder that many Israelis deny the right of a democratic
government to surrender land promised by God. The Likud
Central Committee�s vote against the creation of a Palestinian
state in May 2002, and the rank and file�s vote against
withdrawal from Gaza in May 2004, are more evidence
of Israel�s possible inability to deliver the two-state
deal.
The
second major fact on the ground that nurtures pessimism
regarding the two-state outcome is the �separation fence.�
Israeli proponents of the barrier that Israel is building
in the West Bank argue that it will create a de facto
two-state solution, leading to the inevitable evacuation
of settlements lying to the east of its route. They
further believe that the route will �correct itself�
over time. Skeptics submit that far from enhancing the
two-state solution, the Sharon government has effectively
hijacked �separation��originally a Labor Party idea�to
serve its own political agenda, namely, a state of bantustans
on some 42 percent of the West Bank. Avraham
Bendor, a former head of the General Security Services,
says that �instead of creating a reality of separation
and maintaining a window of opportunity for �two states
for two peoples��this window of opportunity is gradually
closing. The Palestinians are arguing: you wanted
two states, and instead you are closing us up in an
[apartheid-era] South African reality. Therefore,
the more we support the fence, they lose their dream
and hope for an independent Palestinian state.�[29]
From
a Likud perspective, imposition of such a state is justified
on the grounds that Israel will require strategic depth
to defend itself, in the form of �security zones� in
the coastal regions, around Jerusalem and an Israeli
presence along the Jordan river. The senior IDF command
reportedly no longer believes that a two-state outcome
along the Geneva contours is sufficient to resolve the
conflict. The IDF brass hints that a future deal will
need to be based on a regional understanding, shorthand
for a Jordanian-Palestinian federation wherein Jordan
absorbs the land from which Israel agrees to withdraw
and the vast population that inhabits that land.This,
as Uzi Benziman notes, is the same policy prescription
of the extreme right.[30]
But
it seems highly questionable that the Palestinians will
agree to anything less than the territorial parameters
of the unfinished Taba negotiations of January 2001,
which spoke of dividing Jerusalem and land ceded by
Israel in exchange for any settlements retained. As
chief PA negotiator Saeb Erekat wrote, �It
has become clear to many Palestinians that what Mr.
Sharon and many other Israelis have in mind for the
Palestinians is a ghetto �state� surrounded by Israeli
settlements, with no ability to defend itself, deprived
of water resources and arable land, with an insignificant
presence in Jerusalem and sovereign in name only. Palestinians
will never accept such a future. Nor should we.�[31] Likewise, it seems unlikely
that Jordan will sacrifice the Hashemite entity it has
actively consolidated since 1988. It is also extremely
unlikely that the international community will indulge
a redrawing of an internationally recognized border.
As Benziman says, these IDF assessments open up space
for debate over alternatives to the two-state outcome.[32]
Demography
Joint
Palestinian/Israeli demonstration at the wall
in Abu Dis. (Yoav Lemmer/AFP)
Due
to Sharon�s refusal to pursue negotiations, many prominent
two-staters believe, time for a two-state solution is
running out. Sari Nusseibeh and Ami Ayalon, respectively
a Palestinian and an Israeli who seek popular endorsement
of a set of basic principles for a permanent status
accommodation, voice this concern. Key supporters of
the Geneva Accord such as David Kimche harness the worry
to promote their own initiative, arguing that opponents
of the accord will lead Israel down the path to a binational
state.[33] Inside the Israeli establishment,
former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, army
chief of staff Moshe Yaalon and four past heads of the
security services echo the fear that government
indecision may see Israel slide into a binational reality.
Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, a Likud member, surprised
many observers when he concurred:
We
don�t have unlimited time. More and more Palestinians
are uninterested in a negotiated, two-state solution,
because they want to change the essence of the conflict
from an Algerian paradigm to a South African one. From
a struggle against �occupation,� in their parlance,
to a struggle for one man, one vote. That is, of course,
a much cleaner struggle, a much more popular struggle�and
ultimately a much more powerful one. For us, it would
mean the end of the Jewish state.[34]
Olmert�s
remarks hint at the extent to which demography, rather
than coexistence, has come to underpin the Zionist case
for disengagement.
Haifa University�s Arnon Sofer argues that the total
population west of the Jordan will reach 15.5 million
by 2020. The 6.4 million Jews will constitute only 40
percent of the population; the majority will be 8.8
million Palestinian Arabs. Sofer contends that demographic
parity between Jews and Arabs already exists, if Israel�s
non-Jewish, non-Arab residents are excluded from the
count.[35] Such calculations led Barak�s chief negotiator, Gilead Sher,
to call on Israelis to �define our borders by ourselves
and place an iron wall against the demographic threat�
posed to the Jewish majority between the Mediterranean
and the Jordan.[36] The West Bank barrier is widely
supported as such an iron wall.
The
right, including Sharon, has long pooh-poohed the �demographic
threat,� arguing that immigration (aliyah) will
sustain the Jewish demographic advantage. But these
assumptions fly in the face of the reality. Not only
are there insufficient aliyah reservoirs, as
the head of the Jewish Agency, Sali Merridor (himself
a settler), recently confessed,[37]
but some 210,000 Israeli Jews have reportedly left the
country since the fall of 2000.[38] Ehud Olmert�s comments confirm that the right
is mindful of the demographic threat. Olmert supports
a sweeping unilateral disengagement from 80 percent
of the West Bank and all of Gaza, in order to retain
a Jewish democracy. Explaining the sudden prominence
of the demographic issue, one journalist suggests that
�the silent majority has by now grown familiar with
the term �demographic threat� and learned what it means.
Today most Israelis can say: we�ve seen the future,
and it doesn�t work.�[39]
Fear of losing a Jewish majority and facing a binational
reality brings together a range of Israeli actors from
both the left and the right wings. In a dialectical
fashion, the ongoing diplomatic stalemate and the rise
of the demographic discourse could serve to heighten
the Israeli sense that Israel must swiftly and decisively
move to extract itself from a quagmire. The results
of the Likud members� poll may well indicate that it
will not be possible to do so under the current configuration
of the Knesset, whose term ends in 2007.
Demography
and the Extremes
Though
proponents of separation, either negotiated or unilateral,
may win the demographic argument, it is not evident
that the Israeli public will adopt their prognosis.
The Israeli right, which initially opposed the �separation
barrier� in the West Bank, embraced the idea as a result
of public pressure, but altered the route to maximize
Israeli territorial control. The hazard of the demographic
argument, and indeed using binationalism as a scarecrow,
is that they may increase support for ethnic cleansing
or institutionalized discrimination against non-Jews.
As David Landau, editor of the daily Haaretz,
puts it, �While the peace camp hopes that the very real
and frightening demographic scenario will convince the
settlers to finally sober up�lest the entire Zionist
enterprise find itself in mortal danger�the rightists
hope that this same demographic threat will convince
the whole of Israel to join their ranks.� [40] Veteran peace activist Uri Avnery warns against using talk of
inevitable binationalism to �frighten Arab-hating Israelis.
They see it only as another reason to put up more settlements
all over the West Bank.�[41] Settler leader Israel Harel,
indeed, claims that once the Arab minority inside Israel
reaches 40 percent the state will no longer be a Jewish
state. Harel adds that once Israel has �run away� from
the Occupied Territories, the demographic pressure will
intensify as Palestinian refugees are resettled there.[42]
Though Harel refrains from proposing a solution to his
demographic problem, he hints that Zionism has not relied
on miracles, but has created them. What miracle he wants
to create is unclear, but it is not a two-state solution.
Demographic
trends raise the temptation to refuse compromise and
consider radical measures. The demographic obsession
also threatens the precarious relations between the
Jewish majority and Palestinian citizens of Israel.
Leading Labor party leaders support moving the town
of Umm al-Fahm, an Arab town in Israel, to the future
Palestinian state. Dani Mor, a left-wing supporter of
moving communities inhabited by Palestinian citizens
of Israel to the future Palestinian entity, notes that
whoever supports equal rights for all citizens must
support measures to ensure that the majority of the
country�s citizens are Jews. According to Mor, equal
rights for non-Jews will only be assured when there
is no threat to the Jewish character of the state. Residents
of Umm al-Fahm who wish to stay in Israel could move
elsewhere in the country.[43] Commenting on such ideas, Amnon Raz-Krakotzkin notes, �The peace
discourse of the Israeli left in fact proposes getting
rid of Arabs, and therefore it sounds exactly like the
talk of transfer.�[44]
Support for less subtle forms of transfer�forced expulsion
or migration induced by material incentives�peaked at
57 percent in a national survey conducted in 2003, while
46 percent of Israelis supported enforced "transfer"
of Palestinians residing in the Occupied Territories,
and 33 percent supported the transfer of Palestinians
who hold Israeli citizenship.[45]
Ironies
of Stalemate
Talk
of one-state options has not yet overcome the powerful
currents that favor separation and the two-state solution.
But the longer the diplomatic stalemate and settlement
expansion proceed unabated, the more disillusioned Israelis
and Palestinians will become with the land-sharing formula.
The
two-state solution will certainly become increasingly
discredited among Palestinians if
there is no serious diplomatic process. For some
Palestinians, the failure of the PA between 1994 and
2000 to develop credible and transparent institutions
contributed to a sense that the Oslo years �proved the
[Palestinian] nationalist goal unattainable.�[46] The two-state solution is also associated with
the Palestinian ruling class, viewed by many Palestinians
as corrupt and inept. The availability of vast sums
of international aid created a rentier state in which
the dependent PA elites failed to develop a rapport
with their constituency. So far, the Palestinian mainstream
refrains from endorsing one-state ideas out of consideration
for the besieged Arafat and how much the PA invested
in a negotiated two-state solution. But even in the
mainstream, there are hints of a radical rethinking.
Prominent Fatah leader Qaddura Faris claims that he
has been approached to form a party promoting a one-state
solution. Faris suggests that because Palestinians �have
been left without any hope�we are seeking any path�even
annexation to Israel�in other words to win [Palestinian
rights] by using the vehicle of democracy.�[47]
Ironically, the beginnings of eroded support for the
two-state solution among secular nationalist Palestinians
may induce Israel to look toward Hamas as its preferred
partner. Though Israelis view Hamas as a proponent of
a single Islamic state and, therefore, committed to
Israel�s obliteration, others disagree, citing numerous
Hamas statements over the years accepting a two-state
solution in exchange for a long-term hudna (ceasefire).
A further irony is that, of all the Palestinian factions,
the Islamist movement has perhaps the most to lose in
a secular or binational state. Given both the declining
standing of the PA and the growing popularity of Hamas,
Fatah entrepreneurs may come to view demands for a binational
or secular state as a marker to distinguish their movement
from other political players. Still another irony is
that the increasingly frequent use of the demographic
argument in internal Israeli discourse may, in fact,
encourage Palestinians to view the demand for a vote
within a unitary entity as increasingly attractive.
The Israeli demographic debate reinforces thinking about
the conflict as a zero-sum game in which Israel�s greatest
�weakness� is the Palestinians� greatest advantage.
Steady
Erosion
Writing
in 1998, Azmi Bishara predicted, �When it becomes fully
apparent that an independent and democratic state occupying
every inch of the West Bank and Gaza Strip free of Israeli
settlements is not realizable, it will be time for Palestinians
to reexamine the entire strategy. We will then begin
to discuss a binational state solution.�[48] History and Israeli actions might well have vindicated him.
For almost two decades, Meron Benvenisti has also warned
that, at some point, Israeli expansion would pass the
point of no return, beyond which implementation of a
two-state solution is not possible. In reply to this
hypothesis, the scholar Ian Lustick suggested that the
issue at stake was not �facts on the ground,� but rather
�facts in people�s minds.�[49]
Borrowing from the prison writings of Antonio Gramsci,
Lustick argued that processes of state expansion were
reversible, especially if the territory in question
is not widely accepted as an integral part of the metropolis.
He offered the examples of French disengagement from
Algeria and Irish independence, granted by Britain,
as evidence. But there is no sea separating Israel and
Palestine, and counter-claims on the territory of the
Israeli metropolis have not disappeared. Lustick also
failed to appreciate what impact the �facts on the ground�
would have on the calculations of the Palestinians in
regard to supporting the two-state outcome. These facts
have, over time, undermined the very notion of the two-state
deal that Lustick deems desirable and inevitable.
While
the debate over the �final status� of the conflict between
Israel and the Palestinians is far from resolved, the
legitimacy, basis and support for separation between
the two peoples is steadily being eroded, primarily
by unilateral Israeli actions. Theoretically, this process
can be reversed, but at present there does not appear
to be an Israeli, Palestinian or international leader
who can alter the trend. It is worth recalling that
the two-state idea itself is not deep-rooted, only becoming
salient for Palestinians and Israelis after 1988 and
only becoming the conventional wisdom in the 1990s.
Could the two-state solution be judged unattainable
before another ten years pass?
One
thing is certain: the binational state will not emerge
because Meron Benvenisti or Qaddura Faris set up a party
and campaigned for one. Rather, it will come about because
separation is discredited and impossible. As Israeli
journalistAluf Benn perceptively notes, in the
wake of the Likud referendum, �talk has shifted to the
left, the reality to the right, and the gap between
them has only grown wider.�[50] The two-state outcome is far from being the inevitable solution
to the conflict, and it may well plunge into that crack
between discourse and reality.
[1] Telling evidence of the debate
can be viewed at http://www.one-state.org.
[4]
Kirkpatrick Sale, �An End to the Israeli Experiment?
Unmaking a Grievous Error,� Counterpunch, March
3, 2003.
[5]
Tony Judt, �Israel: The Alternative,� The New York
Review of Books, October 23, 2003.
[6]
Daniel Lazare, �The One-State Solution,� The Nation,
November 3, 2003.
[7]
Helena Cobban, �Ends and Means: A Response to �The
Case for Binationalism,�� Boston Review (December
2001-January 2002) and �A Binational Israel-Palestine,�
Christian Science Monitor, October 9, 2003.
[16]Haaretz, November 4, 2002 and Maariv,
November 21, 2003.
[17]
Yoel Esteron, �Who�s in Favor of Annihilating Israel?�
Haaretz, November 28, 2003 and Ben Dror Yemini,
�Arafat�s Dancers,� Maariv, November 24, 2003.
[45]
Asher Arian, Israeli Public Opinion on National
Security 2003, Memorandum 67 (Tel Aviv: Jaffee
Center for Strategic Studies, October 2003), p. 30.
[46]Lama
Abu Odeh, �The Case for Binationalism,� Boston
Review (December 2001-January 2002).
[49]
Ian Lustick, Unsettled States, Disputed Lands:
Britain and Ireland, France and Algeria, Israel and
the West Bank (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University
Press, 1993).
Morocco
serves as the backdrop for such Hollywood blockbusters as Gladiator,
Black Hawk Down and Body of Lies. The country’s breathtaking
landscapes and gritty urban neighbourhoods are the perfect setting
for Hollywood’s imagination.
Unbeknown
to most filmgoers, however, is that Morocco is embroiled in one of
Africa’s oldest conflicts - the dispute over Western
Sahara. This month the UN Security Council is expected to take up the
dispute once more, providing US President Barack Obama with an opportunity
to assert genuine leadership in resolving this conflict. But there’s
no sign that the new administration is paying adequate attention. Full
Story>>
Shortly
before assuming office, President Barack Obama was handed a missive
signed by such Washington luminaries as ex-national security advisers
Zbigniew Brezezinski and Brent Scowcroft, urging him to “explore
the possibility” of direct contact with Hamas. One month after
he entered the White House, Obama received an epistle from Ahmad Yousef,
a Gaza-based spokesman for the Islamist movement, making the same recommendation. “There
can be no peace without Hamas,” Yousef told the New York Times
when asked about the letter's contents. “We congratulated Mr.
Obama on his presidency and reminded him that he should live up to
his promise to bring real change to the region.”
There
is no word, as yet, on how the foreign policy doyens' message was
received, but Yousef's occasioned a huffy US rebuke of the UN Relief
Works Agency, whose top official in Gaza, Karen Abu Zayd, passed the
letter to Sen. John Kerry while he was visiting the devastated territory
in mid-February. Even a single sealed envelope, it seems, creates the
appearance that the Obama administration is breaking with the US vow,
enunciated first under President George W. Bush, not to speak with
Hamas until it agrees to renounce violence, abide by previous Palestinian
agreements with Israel and recognize Israel as a Jewish state. Full
Story>>
It
has been quite a week. For the first time, the international community
indicted a sitting president of a sovereign state. Omar al-Bashir
of Sudan stands accused by the International Criminal Court in The
Hague of "crimes against humanity and war crimes" committed
in the course of the Khartoum regime's brutal suppression of the
revolt in the country's far western province of Darfur. Having indicted
two other figures associated with the regime in 2007, ICC prosecutor
Luis Moreno Ocampo began building a case against the man at the top,
and on Wednesday, the court issued a warrant for Bashir's arrest.
Full Story>>
Speaking
to his people on January 18, hours after Hamas responded to Israel’s
unilateral suspension of hostilities with a conditional ceasefire
of its own, the deposed Palestinian Authority prime minister Ismail
Haniyeh devoted several passages of his prepared text to the subject
of Palestinian national reconciliation. For perhaps the first time
since Hamas’s June 2007 seizure of power in the Gaza Strip,
an Islamist leader broached the topic of healing the Palestinian divide
without mentioning Mahmoud Abbas by name.
At
a press conference the following day convened by Abu Ubaida, the
spokesperson of the Martyr Izz al Din al Qassam Brigades, the Hamas
military wing, the movement went one step further. “The Resistance”,
Abu Ubaida intoned, “is the legitimate representative of the
Palestinian people”. Full Story>>
Three
weeks after the war on Gaza, Israel declared a unilateral ceasefire
but refused to terminate its so-called defensive operations. In response,
Hamas declared a ceasefire for one week, until the withdrawal of
Israeli troops has been completed. For many in the West, the ceasefire
might seem like an occasion to celebrate, for the cessation of military
hostilities on both sides will perhaps renew the peace process. But
there are reasons to be critical of this ceasefire, since it continues
the situation in which Israel acts unilaterally. What we are actually
witnessing is a new phase of the catastrophe in Gaza. While the characteristics
of this phase are not yet known, Israel's violence has become ever
more evident. And perhaps this is why Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
did not mention the word "peace" once in the speech he gave
to announce the ceasefire. The "peace process" might soon
be revealed as the other side of the coin to war -- its continuation
by other means -- that simultaneously feeds it. Full Story>>
Bob
Woodward’s four books chronicling the wars of President
George W. Bush are sensitive barometers of conventional wisdom in Washington.
Whereas the first volume, published in 2002 at the height of the self-righteous
nationalism gripping the capital after the September 11, 2001 attacks,
hailed Bush’s self-confidence in acting to protect the homeland,
the 2008 installment depicts the same man as cocksure and incurious.
This much is not news. More educational are Woodward’s hints
about the worldviews that will outlast this unpopular administration,
embedded in the organs of the national security state. Full
Story>>
The
Egyptian regime has once again succeeded in stifling freedom of speech,
this time not in Egypt, but in the US. Earlier this month, an Egyptian
court convicted a prominent Egyptian-American activist for his outspoken
criticism of the regime’s poor human
rights record in American public fora. The court accused Saad Eddin
Ibrahim, of "tarnishing Egypt's image" abroad. The conviction
referred primarily to writings he published in the foreign press; most
notably among them an August 2007 op-ed in the Washington Post in which
he criticized Egypt's human rights record and questioned the reasons
behind US aid to Egypt. Full
Story>>
Militant
Islam is under global scrutiny for clues to conditions that foster
its rise, and to strategies for reversing that growth. But the key
is not in Islamic doctrine, US foreign policy or formal ties to various
nations, as many analysts have asserted. It lies at the community
level, with clan and local leaders. Full
Story>>
Kurdish
parties have become kingmakers in Baghdad , and they know it. As
no federal government can work without them, they are pulling every
available political lever to expand the territory and resources they
control, trying to build the foundation of an independent Kurdish state.
But even more than territory, they need security. If everyone acts
quickly and wisely, that understanding could help resolve one of the
Iraq war’s thorniest issues. Full
Story>>
The
debate over the war in Iraq follows a yellowing script: The minute
someone suggests that the US move to withdraw its troops, war supporters
cry “Havoc!”
True to form, when no less a figure than Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki stated he wants a timeline for a US pullout, John McCain
summoned the specter of dire consequences. “I’ve always
said we’ll come home with honor and with victory and not through
a set timetable,” McCain said. In his major foreign policy speech
on July 15, Barack Obama affirmed his support for a withdrawal timetable,
adding that the US must “get out as carefully as we were careless
getting in.” Obama’s position is the correct one, but he,
like many other war critics, has done too little to counter the refrain
that withdrawal is simply
“cutting and running,” a recipe for disaster. Full
Story>>