MERIP Primer on the UPRISING IN PALESTINE

The Diplomatic Front

Despite Arafat's attempts to involve Russia, the European Union and the UN more directly, the US reasserted its dominant role in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in December 2000 with President Bill Clinton's "bridging proposals" for restarting the process begun at Oslo in 1993. The proposals were similar to the ideas that had failed at Camp David in July 2000: Israel would withdraw from 95 percent of the West Bank and 100 percent of Gaza, but would retain many settlements and "security borders" along the Jordan; Israel would recognize a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza; Israeli-controlled bypass roads linking settlements to Israel proper would divide the West Bank into three cantons; and the PA would move its capital to East Jerusalem, but Israel would retain at least partial sovereignty over the Haram al-Sharif. In exchange, the Clinton plan asked the PA to give up the right of return for Palestinian refugees, except for a limited return of refugees to the Palestinian state, and to sign an "end of conflict" clause renouncing all further Palestinian claims on the State of Israel.

Concurrently, CIA director George Tenet held a series of meetings with Israeli and Palestinian security chiefs to determine how best to stop the confrontations and shooting in the Occupied Territories. Tenet and the Israelis sought assurances that the PA would arrest known Fatah and Hamas militants -- with or without formal charges.

In the first week of January 2001, Arafat and Barak both signaled willingness to convene a three-way summit to discuss the Clinton plan. But both leaders were publicly skeptical that a summit would produce a substantive agreement. On January 8, 2001, 25,000 right-wing Israelis demonstrated in Jerusalem against the plan. Sharon called Barak a "sellout" for considering the proposals, and other Likud figures used the word "traitor." On the Palestinian side, pressure mounted on Arafat to break off discussions of the Clinton plan, since its positions on all the final status issues were distant from the mandates of international law. On January 9, two of his top advisers said the PA was unwilling to sign an "interim" agreement that did not resolve final status issues.

The new uprising has reminded Israel, the US and the PA of the existence of Palestinian public opinion. Since September 2000, Palestinians have sent a clear message that a permanent settlement must be based on the stipulations of UN Resolutions 194 and 242: Israel's full withdrawal from the Occupied Territories, including East Jerusalem, the dismantlement of Jewish settlements on Palestinian territory and the rights of return and compensation for Palestinian refugees. Partly because he fears for his own position, Arafat cannot accept a "peace plan" that so undercuts the motivations of the second intifada. It appears very unlikely that Clinton will be able to broker any sort of agreement before he leaves office on January 20, 2001, and equally unlikely that the uprising will end soon.

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